The international community is closely monitoring the results of the presidential election in Afghanistan. Preliminary results will be announced on October 19, and final — on November 7, after the candidates’ complaints are examined. If none of the candidates gets more than half of the votes, the second round will be held, which is tentatively scheduled for November 23. One of the main candidates Abdullah was a senior member of the Northern Alliance that, backed by the U.S. military in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, forced the Taliban from power in late 2001. He has failed to win previous presidential contests. But before the latest U.S.-Taliban talks collapsed, he made clear he was willing — if he won the presidency — to step down, if necessary, for peace.
Mr. Abdullah «would give up his presidency to make way for an interim government …. He is not as power-hungry as Ghani is», says the Western expert. In addition, Ahmad Masoud, the son of the famous field commander Ahmad Shah Masoud, declared his political ambitions to oppose the Taliban by uniting the forces of «free Afghanistan and a tolerant Islamic republic». In his opinion, the peaceful path should be to decentralize power, because «without the US, the government is not able to fight the Taliban». Regarding the Taliban, their spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said: «We already warned people not to attend election rallies, if they suffer any losses that is their own responsibility».
«Will the election give the legitimacy to the president?» — asks Masood Karokhail, head of The Liaison Office, a Kabul-based group that facilitates peace and rebuilding efforts. «The Taliban will still say that it is not a legitimate government, that it is not a legitimate president, that only a few urban centers voted, even that there were only one million or two million votes, and that it was fraudulent», says Mr. Karokhail. «So we are all a bit skeptical about the result, and that’s what scares me». Afghanistan is likely to descend into a dangerous tinderbox of various warring factions. Elections will further destabilize the heavily fragmented political landscape. Only an international diplomatic effort igniting intra-Afghan talks, the transfer of power to a transitional authority and a full withdrawal of foreign forces will render a face-saving retreat and leave the country somewhat politically stable.
Afghanistan’s neighbors in the region are closely monitoring the election, as a protracted political crisis in the state will inevitably weaken the police and army. And the weakening of the security forces will be an invitation to the Taliban to demonstrate strength and capture several counties in the northern Afghan provinces. Any candidate who agrees to implement the previous agreements established by Kabul will be suitable for Central Asia. So, Uzbekistan is probably interested in maintaining trade flow, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will want to know whether the new president will be able to ensure the development of the large-scale energy project CASA-1000 and the security of infrastructure. Neighbors do not even dream about the new broom sweeping the drug dealers and finally agreeing with the Taliban: almost every candidate promises this and no one can fulfill it. Achieving a fragile peace and stable economic growth will already be a tremendous success for the president.
